The Submarine Advantage

Now that the South Korean government has officially blamed North Korea for the sinking of ROKS Cheonan (PCC 772), we'll have to see how the situation plays out. My thoughts are that we'll see some arguments in the Security Council and a weak resolution passing with minimal sanctions, and sometime in the next couple years we'll see some North Korean vessels have "accidents" which may or may not be publicized.

Now that submarine torpedoes are in the news, expect more less-than-knowledgeable commentary like this post at the Human Events blog, which brings up not-infrequent meme that supercavitating torpedoes are a superweapon that can't be countered (and that they're somehow superior to regular homing torpedoes). The author also says:

The evolution of submarine warfare has been a cat-and-mouse game in which a technological advantage can turn the hunter into the hunted. The March 26 incident may now give the submarine the advantage.

As if that hasn't been the case for about 50 years. Sure, it helps skimmer morale to run exercises where they think they're actually tracking a submarine in real-world conditions, but the fact remains that the best defense against a well-handled submarine is another submarine (or a clever minefield). This incident only shows that even a crappy submarine is superior to most surface ships, especially unalerted ones.

[As always, in discussing this post please try to avoid any information not in the public domain.]